2.87 lakh corona cases will come to India daily from February next year: Study

If the corona virus vaccine is not handed over by the beginning of next year, India can go through a very bad phase. According to researchers from Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), in these conditions, since February 2021, 2.87 lakh cases of corona virus in India can be reported every day. The study is based on testing and case data from 84 countries that constitute 60 percent of the world’s total population.

MIT researchers Hajhir Rahmanadad, TYE Lim and John Sterman have used the SEIR model (Standard Mathematical Model) to reach this conclusion. Epidemiologists use this model to detect infectious diseases.

Researchers have also claimed that due to lack of treatment, the total number of cases worldwide can be between 20 to 60 million in 2021 between March and May. By the beginning of next year, Corona infection will cause the worst conditions in India.

After India, by the end of February 2021, the worst conditions will be in the US (95,000 cases per day), South Africa (21,000 cases per day) and Iran (17,000 cases per day).

Three very special scenarios (Synerio) have been taken into consideration in this research. First, what will be the current testing rate and its impact. Second, if after 1 July 2020, the testing rate increases by 0.1 percent. Third, if the test remains at the current level, but the risk of contact rate is 8, that is, one infected person infects at least 8 people.

This model demonstrates the importance of early and aggressive testing of the Covid-19, as its cases increase rapidly. This means that the reduction or delay in testing may prove more fatal for the population.

Source: Aajtak